Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2674 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 2674 LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest F9 4696 LAS 16:46 → SLC 19:23 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2674 Delta Flight history →	LAS 06:00	SLC 08:19	5%	2%	0.7%	96%
WN 2422 Southwest	LAS 08:21	SLC 10:48	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
F9 3016 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 10:24	SLC 13:00	11%	5%	1.0%	93%
DL 1698 Delta Flight history →	LAS 10:00	SLC 12:29	11%	4%	0.6%	89%
DL 1659 Delta Flight history →	LAS 13:15	SLC 15:44	15%	5%	0.4%	84%
DL 1672 Delta Flight history →	LAS 17:00	SLC 19:25	18%	7%	0.5%	77%
WN 263 Southwest	LAS 13:45	SLC 16:12	23%	4%	0.5%	no record
F9 4696 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 16:46	SLC 19:23	27%	7%	1.1%	88%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON