Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2426 at 05:33 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 3–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 2426 LAS 05:33 → SMF 07:13 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4143 LAS 17:11 → SMF 19:00 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2426 Southwest	LAS 05:33	SMF 07:13	2%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 843 Southwest	LAS 07:12	SMF 08:51	3%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 1741 Southwest	LAS 09:13	SMF 10:52	7%	2%	1.0%	no record
F9 4779 Frontier	LAS 06:09	SMF 07:58	8%	3%	1.5%	no record
WN 442 Southwest	LAS 10:28	SMF 12:07	11%	3%	1.1%	no record
WN 2429 Southwest	LAS 11:53	SMF 13:32	17%	5%	0.9%	no record
WN 2430 Southwest	LAS 15:49	SMF 17:27	21%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 1926 Southwest	LAS 13:44	SMF 15:23	22%	6%	0.7%	no record
F9 4143 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 17:11	SMF 19:00	26%	11%	1.0%	90%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON