Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2433 at 06:46 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 2433 LAS 06:46 → SNA 07:58 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4022 LAS 16:58 → SNA 18:11 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2433 Southwest	LAS 06:46	SNA 07:58	5%	1%	1.7%	no record
WN 2434 Southwest	LAS 08:07	SNA 09:19	10%	2%	1.0%	no record
DL 4078 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAS 08:45	SNA 10:02	14%	7%	1.4%	88%
WN 2435 Southwest	LAS 10:52	SNA 12:04	21%	5%	1.0%	no record
WN 4841 Southwest	LAS 15:48	SNA 17:00	27%	7%	0.9%	no record
WN 3086 Southwest	LAS 12:42	SNA 13:55	27%	6%	0.9%	no record
F9 3737 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 15:58	SNA 17:19	29%	10%	1.1%	80%
WN 4022 Southwest	LAS 16:58	SNA 18:11	29%	8%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON