Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4693 at 07:16 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 4693 LAS 07:16 → STL 12:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3744 LAS 13:57 → STL 19:17 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4693 Southwest	LAS 07:16	STL 12:35	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 1409 Southwest	LAS 08:43	STL 13:57	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
F9 3108 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 06:05	STL 11:30	12%	5%	1.4%	81%
WN 2444 Southwest	LAS 17:36	STL 22:53	24%	8%	0.5%	no record
WN 2442 Southwest	LAS 12:28	STL 17:48	24%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 3744 Southwest	LAS 13:57	STL 19:17	25%	6%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON