tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 00:33, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Tampa on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2709 Southwest LAS 11:22 TPA 19:01 27% 6% 0.7% no record
WN 1860 Southwest LAS 16:56 TPA 00:24 33% 9% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:56 → IAH 06:01UA 2009 1h 24m Houston IAH 07:25 → TPA 10:45UA 1353 6h 49m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:44 → MSP 05:50DL 2834 1h 25m Minneapolis MSP 07:15 → TPA 11:26DL 2301 7h 42m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857 2h 42m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → TPA 11:29DL 1587 7h 56m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:06 → IAD 07:44UA 284 1h 16m Dulles IAD 09:00 → TPA 11:32UA 683 8h 26m 96% 88%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:04 → ORD 05:44UA 2102 1h 47m Chicago ORD 07:31 → TPA 11:24UA 2326 8h 20m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → LAS 09:30 → MSP 14:40DL 2261 3h 35m Minneapolis MSP 18:15 → TPA 22:26DL 2385 9h 56m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:19 → MSP 11:22DL 1282 1h 57m Minneapolis MSP 13:19 → TPA 17:32DL 2264 8h 13m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 08m Denver DEN 09:40 → TPA 15:14UA 1010 6h 44m 97% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON