tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 126 at 08:23 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 126 Southwest LAS 08:23 TUL 13:08 8% 2% 0.8% no record
WN 2188 Southwest LAS 17:41 TUL 22:28 22% 8% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857 3h 42m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → TUL 11:56DL 2620 9h 23m 100% 90%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 32m Denver DEN 10:04 → TUL 12:59UA 5315 · flown by SkyWest 5h 29m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 14:55 → TUL 15:53DL 1186 7h 53m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:04 → ORD 05:44UA 2102 3h 01m Chicago ORD 08:45 → TUL 11:03UA 5795 · flown by SkyWest 8h 59m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → LAS 07:05 → ATL 14:05DL 677 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837 8h 59m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → LAS 06:00 → IAH 11:11UA 2608 3h 24m Houston IAH 14:35 → TUL 16:15UA 4239 · flown by CommuteAir 8h 15m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → LAS 00:02 → ORD 05:40AA 3077 2h 36m Chicago ORD 08:16 → TUL 10:12AA 4155 · flown by Envoy 8h 10m 98% 81%
AmericanDetails → LAS 10:11 → DFW 15:08AA 1584 3h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:34 → TUL 19:48AA 3715 · flown by Envoy 7h 37m 97% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LAS 15:40 → IAH 20:55UA 2741 47m Houston IAH 21:42 → TUL 23:15UA 6179 · flown by Mesa 5h 35m 68% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON