tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2392 at 07:46 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2392 Southwest LAS 07:46 TUS 09:14 5% 1% 0.7% no record
WN 951 Southwest LAS 15:16 TUS 16:44 21% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tucson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19DL 2674 1h 06m Salt Lake City SLC 09:25 → TUS 10:24DL 3718 · flown by SkyWest 4h 24m 97% 92%
DeltaDetails → LAS 10:00 → SLC 12:29DL 1698 2h 31m Salt Lake City SLC 15:00 → TUS 16:06DL 3717 · flown by SkyWest 6h 06m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 2h 58m Denver DEN 11:30 → TUS 12:32UA 1188 7h 02m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → LAS 12:10 → PHX 13:33AA 2109 3h 29m Phoenix PHX 17:02 → TUS 18:01AA 6518 · flown by SkyWest 5h 51m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → LAS 09:48 → LAX 11:00DL 2253 3h 10m Los Angeles LAX 14:10 → TUS 15:50DL 3776 · flown by SkyWest 6h 02m 98% 81%
AmericanDetails → LAS 05:59 → DFW 10:47AA 2932 1h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:11 → TUS 12:26AA 2926 6h 27m 97% 74%
UnitedDetails → LAS 06:00 → SFO 07:35UA 643 2h 30m San Francisco SFO 10:05 → TUS 12:22UA 5433 · flown by SkyWest 6h 22m 99% 73%
UnitedDetails → LAS 11:30 → SFO 13:12UA 574 3h 24m San Francisco SFO 16:36 → TUS 18:53UA 5962 · flown by SkyWest 7h 23m 98% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON