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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Alaska via Portland, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 1 h behind Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → LAX 07:00 → PDX 09:21AS 668 1h 09m Portland PDX 10:30 → ANC 13:22AS 775 7h 22m 93% 78%
DeltaDetails → LAX 07:15 → SEA 10:00DL 2980 3h 40m Seattle SEA 13:40 → ANC 16:25DL 928 10h 10m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → LAX 12:09 → SEA 14:55DL 1045 2h 36m Seattle SEA 17:31 → ANC 20:26DL 2367 9h 17m 96% 77%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413 1h 20m Minneapolis MSP 18:10 → ANC 21:00DL 377 10h 45m 94% 76%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 10:00 → SEA 12:48AS 798 3h 10m Seattle SEA 15:58 → ANC 18:37AS 99 9h 37m 98% 73%
UnitedDetails → LAX 07:00 → ORD 13:14UA 1941 2h 51m Chicago ORD 16:05 → ANC 19:48UA 461 13h 48m 97% 72%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 07:00 → SEA 09:49AS 748 3h 32m Seattle SEA 13:21 → ANC 16:08AS 1440 10h 08m 99% 72%
AmericanDetails → LAX 07:00 → DFW 12:18AA 2746 2h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:09 → ANC 19:27AA 399 13h 27m 98% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → LAX 11:23 → PDX 13:44AS 1355 46m Portland PDX 14:30 → ANC 17:27AS 315 7h 04m 67% 57%
AmericanDetails → LAX 09:06 → DFW 14:21AA 1047 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:09 → ANC 19:27AA 399 11h 21m 74% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON