Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 390 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–31%.

Safest bet that day DL 390 LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest F9 4316 LAX 12:43 → ATL 20:24 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 390 Delta Flight history →	LAX 06:00	ATL 13:35	7%	2%	0.5%	89%
DL 515 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:00	ATL 14:35	10%	3%	0.5%	84%
DL 579 Delta	LAX 00:05	ATL 07:19	14%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 715 Delta Flight history →	LAX 14:15	ATL 21:59	14%	5%	0.5%	82%
DL 471 Delta Flight history →	LAX 16:40	ATL 00:30	15%	5%	0.5%	85%
DL 528 Delta Flight history →	LAX 11:00	ATL 18:37	16%	4%	0.5%	86%
DL 782 Delta Flight history →	LAX 08:05	ATL 15:41	16%	4%	0.5%	82%
DL 395 Delta Flight history →	LAX 13:15	ATL 20:56	17%	5%	0.5%	80%
DL 327 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:50	ATL 17:13	22%	4%	0.5%	72%
AA 753 American Flight history →	LAX 09:45	ATL 17:15	29%	10%	0.6%	61%
F9 3216 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 00:04	ATL 07:40	30%	8%	0.9%	65%
F9 4316 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 12:43	ATL 20:24	31%	13%	0.9%	67%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAX 07:35 → AUS 12:38DL 946	53m Austin	AUS 13:31 → ATL 17:00DL 2011	6h 25m	85%	75%
Delta Details →	LAX 09:55 → SLC 12:45DL 1434	50m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906	6h 27m	80%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON