Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 271 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 271 LAX 05:01 → AUS 10:04 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2118 LAX 15:23 → AUS 20:29 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 271 Southwest	LAX 05:01	AUS 10:04	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 267 Southwest	LAX 07:56	AUS 12:59	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 946 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:35	AUS 12:38	12%	4%	0.6%	88%
UA 1625 United	LAX 08:32	AUS 13:48	15%	6%	0.6%	no record
OO 6243 SkyWest	LAX 09:13	AUS 14:21	18%	10%	0.6%	no record
UA 1496 United	LAX 10:59	AUS 16:17	18%	9%	0.6%	no record
DL 986 Delta Flight history →	LAX 10:05	AUS 15:20	20%	6%	0.6%	87%
UA 1001 United	LAX 16:51	AUS 21:59	20%	10%	0.6%	no record
DL 622 Delta Flight history →	LAX 15:55	AUS 20:58	23%	9%	0.6%	78%
WN 4842 Southwest	LAX 15:26	AUS 20:29	32%	10%	0.6%	no record
AA 2118 American Flight history →	LAX 15:23	AUS 20:29	33%	12%	0.6%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON