Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 768 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 768 LAX 06:00 → BNA 12:06 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 2299 LAX 13:06 → BNA 19:08 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 768 Delta Flight history →	LAX 06:00	BNA 12:06	5%	2%	0.6%	92%
WN 2461 Southwest	LAX 05:06	BNA 11:06	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 858 Delta Flight history →	LAX 18:31	BNA 00:33	10%	5%	0.6%	85%
DL 449 Delta Flight history →	LAX 12:15	BNA 18:24	16%	5%	0.6%	78%
AA 1100 American	LAX 09:43	BNA 15:57	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 2299 Southwest	LAX 13:06	BNA 19:08	23%	6%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON