Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 639 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 639 LAX 06:40 → BOS 15:15 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest DL 437 LAX 10:45 → BOS 19:20 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 639 Delta Flight history →	LAX 06:40	BOS 15:15	9%	4%	0.7%	83%
UA 1221 United	LAX 16:20	BOS 01:01	17%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 12 American Flight history →	LAX 08:00	BOS 16:38	18%	7%	0.8%	78%
B6 288 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 08:00	BOS 16:40	19%	8%	0.8%	70%
DL 2166 Delta Flight history →	LAX 15:20	BOS 23:51	21%	7%	0.7%	78%
UA 1783 United Flight history →	LAX 08:35	BOS 17:20	21%	7%	0.7%	83%
AA 382 American Flight history →	LAX 15:01	BOS 23:44	21%	9%	0.7%	79%
B6 2088 JetBlue	LAX 12:41	BOS 21:23	25%	12%	0.8%	no record
B6 988 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 09:59	BOS 18:42	25%	9%	0.8%	81%
DL 437 Delta Flight history →	LAX 10:45	BOS 19:20	27%	8%	0.7%	71%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAX 00:02 → MSP 05:34DL 430	1h 26m Minneapolis	MSP 07:00 → BOS 10:45DL 2649	7h 43m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906	1h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:50 → BOS 16:36DL 657	8h 01m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	LAX 00:14 → JFK 08:20DL 915	1h 30m New York	JFK 09:50 → BOS 11:15DL 5733 · flown by Republic	8h 01m	94%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON