tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Buffalo on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Buffalo is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792 3h 30m Minneapolis MSP 15:22 → BUF 18:24DL 1749 9h 09m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 16:33 → BUF 18:41DL 2050 9h 41m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → LAX 05:10 → ORD 11:27UA 580 2h 32m Chicago ORD 13:59 → BUF 16:40UA 580 8h 30m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → LAX 09:26 → CLT 17:23AA 3175 3h 42m Charlotte CLT 21:05 → BUF 22:51AA 703 10h 25m 97% 79%
AmericanDetails → LAX 10:11 → PHL 19:00AA 738 3h 20m Philadelphia PHL 22:20 → BUF 23:53AA 5911 · flown by Piedmont 10h 42m 100% 78%
UnitedDetails → LAX 10:55 → DEN 14:27UA 2061 3h 06m Denver DEN 17:33 → BUF 22:45UA 731 8h 50m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → LAX 08:15 → ORD 14:35UA 1946 3h 25m Chicago ORD 18:00 → BUF 20:41UA 1335 9h 26m 99% 75%
AmericanDetails → LAX 06:05 → ORD 12:32AA 383 2h 04m Chicago ORD 14:36 → BUF 17:21AA 3013 8h 16m 98% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → LAX 13:15 → JFK 21:53DL 939 47m New York JFK 22:40 → BUF 00:38 +1DL 5264 · flown by Endeavor 8h 23m 73% 55%
UnitedDetails → LAX 10:45 → ORD 17:04UA 2113 56m Chicago ORD 18:00 → BUF 20:41UA 1335 6h 56m 71% 54%
JetBlueDetails → LAX 10:47 → FLL 18:59B6 1700 54m Fort Lauderdale FLL 19:53 → BUF 23:05B6 866 9h 18m 63% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON