Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1016 at 05:02 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 1016 LAX 05:02 → BWI 13:08 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4276 LAX 13:41 → BWI 21:53 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1016 Southwest	LAX 05:02	BWI 13:08	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1093 United Flight history →	LAX 09:33	BWI 17:43	15%	5%	0.6%	90%
WN 4276 Southwest	LAX 13:41	BWI 21:53	23%	7%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAX 12:35 → MSP 18:11DL 914	1h 34m Minneapolis	MSP 19:45 → BWI 23:13DL 2918	7h 38m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	LAX 08:05 → MSP 13:42DL 799	59m Minneapolis	MSP 14:41 → BWI 18:15DL 2565	7h 10m	90%	80%
United Details →	LAX 12:50 → ORD 19:05UA 457	1h 07m Chicago	ORD 20:12 → BWI 23:23UA 220	7h 33m	78%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON