Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 2212 at 12:50, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 2212 United Flight history →	LAX 12:50	BZN 16:24	12%	5%	0.6%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906	1h 25m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:55 → BZN 11:17DL 1971	4h 42m	97%	91%
Delta Details →	LAX 11:41 → SLC 14:30DL 1194	2h 50m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:20 → BZN 18:44DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest	6h 03m	99%	90%
United Details →	LAX 07:00 → DEN 10:29UA 703	3h 15m Denver	DEN 13:44 → BZN 15:33UA 513	7h 33m	99%	87%
Alaska Details →	LAX 07:00 → PDX 09:21AS 668	1h 12m Portland	PDX 10:33 → BZN 13:12AS 393	5h 12m	94%	85%
American Details →	LAX 06:00 → DFW 11:15AA 2811	1h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:14 → BZN 15:16AA 947	8h 16m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	LAX 07:15 → SEA 10:00DL 2980	1h 40m Seattle	SEA 11:40 → BZN 14:35DL 4104 · flown by SkyWest	6h 20m	94%	80%
Alaska Details →	LAX 07:00 → SEA 09:49AS 748	1h 59m Seattle	SEA 11:48 → BZN 14:24AS 277	6h 24m	98%	76%
United Details →	LAX 07:30 → SFO 09:06UA 1372	2h 54m San Francisco	SFO 12:00 → BZN 15:21UA 562	6h 51m	99%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON