tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 08:47, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Cleveland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2315 United LAX 08:32 CLE 16:16 12% 5% 0.6% no record
UA 2756 United LAX 16:25 CLE 00:10 14% 7% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cleveland is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 00:02 → MSP 05:34DL 430 1h 37m Minneapolis MSP 07:11 → CLE 10:09DL 1083 7h 07m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792 3h 46m Minneapolis MSP 15:38 → CLE 18:35DL 1118 9h 20m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:03 → DFW 05:21AA 2490 1h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:05 → CLE 10:54AA 1172 7h 51m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491 1h 08m Houston IAH 07:20 → CLE 11:14UA 544 7h 23m 93% 85%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:41 → SLC 14:30DL 1194 2h 55m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → CLE 22:58DL 2855 8h 17m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → LAX 07:00 → DEN 10:29UA 703 3h 26m Denver DEN 13:55 → CLE 18:53UA 2476 8h 53m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → LAX 05:45 → IAH 11:12UA 654 3h 23m Houston IAH 14:35 → CLE 18:30UA 1934 9h 45m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 16:51 → CLE 18:42DL 1350 9h 42m 99% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LAX 08:05 → PHL 16:28AA 1528 47m Philadelphia PHL 17:15 → CLE 19:06AA 5862 · flown by Piedmont 8h 01m 60% 45%
UnitedDetails → LAX 10:20 → EWR 19:04UA 2127 51m Newark EWR 19:55 → CLE 21:45UA 2398 8h 25m 57% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON