Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 469 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 469 LAX 06:01 → CLT 13:57 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1596 LAX 12:53 → CLT 20:48 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 469 American	LAX 06:01	CLT 13:57	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1952 American Flight history →	LAX 07:12	CLT 15:05	13%	4%	0.7%	94%
AA 3175 American Flight history →	LAX 09:26	CLT 17:23	22%	6%	0.7%	76%
AA 2070 American	LAX 11:17	CLT 19:12	23%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 1596 American	LAX 12:53	CLT 20:48	23%	8%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491	1h 13m Houston	IAH 07:25 → CLT 11:02UA 3988 · flown by Mesa	7h 11m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → CLT 16:17DL 3031	7h 17m	97%	82%
American Details →	LAX 00:31 → DFW 05:46AA 971	1h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:00 → CLT 10:44AA 317	7h 13m	90%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON