Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:02, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Columbus on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 2251 United	LAX 10:31	CMH 18:45	17%	7%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAX 00:02 → MSP 05:34DL 430	1h 36m Minneapolis	MSP 07:10 → CMH 10:02DL 2772	7h 00m	98%	92%
Delta Details →	LAX 09:45 → DTW 17:08DL 494	2h 46m Detroit	DTW 19:54 → CMH 21:02DL 5838 · flown by Republic	8h 17m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792	3h 43m Minneapolis	MSP 15:35 → CMH 18:28DL 2113	9h 13m	100%	88%
American Details →	LAX 00:03 → DFW 05:21AA 2490	1h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:18 → CMH 10:50AA 1279	7h 47m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 17:25 → CMH 19:03DL 2786	10h 03m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	LAX 09:50 → ATL 17:13DL 327	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 20:33 → CMH 22:15DL 1501	9h 25m	98%	86%
United Details →	LAX 10:45 → ORD 17:04UA 2113	2h 41m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → CMH 22:24UA 3614 · flown by Republic	8h 39m	97%	86%
American Details →	LAX 00:08 → PHL 08:37AA 2010	1h 53m Philadelphia	PHL 10:30 → CMH 12:12AA 2253	9h 04m	99%	86%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	LAX 10:45 → ORD 17:04UA 2113	55m Chicago	ORD 17:59 → CMH 20:26UA 1278	6h 41m	69%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON