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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:02, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Hebron on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 00:02 → MSP 05:34DL 430 1h 40m Minneapolis MSP 07:14 → CVG 10:03DL 954 7h 01m 98% 91%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:03 → DFW 05:21AA 2490 2h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:48 → CVG 11:21AA 2610 8h 18m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906 1h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 09:40 → CVG 15:03DL 2273 6h 28m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792 3h 58m Minneapolis MSP 15:50 → CVG 18:37DL 703 9h 22m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → LAX 08:05 → ATL 15:41DL 782 3h 51m Atlanta ATL 19:32 → CVG 21:01DL 2248 9h 56m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:41 → SLC 14:30DL 1194 2h 55m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → CVG 22:46DL 2291 8h 05m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390 1h 40m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → CVG 16:41DL 1008 7h 41m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → LAX 07:00 → ATL 14:35DL 515 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 17:59 → CVG 19:25DL 3119 9h 25m 99% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → LAX 09:50 → ATL 17:13DL 327 46m Atlanta ATL 17:59 → CVG 19:25DL 3119 6h 35m 61% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON