Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 13–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 392 LAX 07:30 → DCA 15:32 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AS 6 LAX 11:48 → DCA 20:00 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 392 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:30	DCA 15:32	13%	5%	0.7%	81%
AA 3283 American Flight history →	LAX 08:23	DCA 16:29	20%	8%	0.7%	83%
AA 591 American Flight history →	LAX 12:26	DCA 20:29	22%	10%	0.7%	78%
AS 6 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 11:48	DCA 20:00	23%	8%	0.8%	78%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	LAX 00:31 → DFW 05:46AA 971	1h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:02 → DCA 10:59AA 1623	7h 28m	90%	81%
Delta Details →	LAX 08:05 → MSP 13:42DL 799	55m Minneapolis	MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963	7h 04m	88%	74%
Frontier Details →	LAX 06:30 → DEN 10:03F9 3156	1h 22m Denver	DEN 11:25 → DCA 16:59F9 688	7h 29m	94%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON