Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 652 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 652 LAX 05:05 → DEN 08:45 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2470 LAX 14:41 → DEN 18:05 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 652 United	LAX 05:05	DEN 08:45	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2467 Southwest	LAX 06:36	DEN 10:00	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 703 United Flight history →	LAX 07:00	DEN 10:29	9%	3%	0.6%	90%
F9 3156 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 06:30	DEN 10:03	10%	4%	0.7%	90%
AA 6376 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 07:04	DEN 10:31	11%	5%	0.6%	95%
WN 2049 Southwest	LAX 08:07	DEN 11:31	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1652 United	LAX 17:50	DEN 21:34	12%	6%	0.5%	no record
UA 1912 United Flight history →	LAX 08:47	DEN 12:13	12%	4%	0.6%	91%
UA 2061 United Flight history →	LAX 10:55	DEN 14:27	13%	5%	0.6%	91%
UA 360 United Flight history →	LAX 12:46	DEN 16:16	14%	5%	0.6%	90%
OO 4948 SkyWest	LAX 14:05	DEN 17:33	15%	8%	0.6%	no record
DL 2148 Delta Flight history →	LAX 08:00	DEN 11:28	16%	4%	0.7%	83%
F9 4346 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 11:25	DEN 15:01	18%	8%	0.7%	80%
WN 2469 Southwest	LAX 11:22	DEN 14:52	18%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2146 United Flight history →	LAX 16:10	DEN 19:40	18%	7%	0.6%	79%
UA 2758 United Flight history →	LAX 14:30	DEN 18:00	21%	8%	0.6%	73%
DL 2176 Delta Flight history →	LAX 14:53	DEN 18:18	24%	6%	0.7%	65%
F9 2342 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 14:23	DEN 18:05	27%	9%	0.7%	70%
WN 2470 Southwest	LAX 14:41	DEN 18:05	31%	7%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON