Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2811 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 2811 LAX 06:00 → DFW 11:15 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 500 LAX 13:53 → DFW 19:07 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2811 American Flight history →	LAX 06:00	DFW 11:15	8%	4%	0.9%	87%
DL 521 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:35	DFW 12:48	10%	4%	0.7%	88%
AA 2746 American Flight history →	LAX 07:00	DFW 12:18	11%	4%	0.9%	87%
AA 2490 American Flight history →	LAX 00:03	DFW 05:12	13%	5%	1.0%	92%
AA 2766 American Flight history →	LAX 07:53	DFW 13:08	13%	6%	0.9%	84%
AA 971 American Flight history →	LAX 00:31	DFW 05:46	14%	6%	0.9%	85%
F9 4964 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 08:50	DFW 14:05	19%	7%	1.2%	75%
DL 948 Delta Flight history →	LAX 13:50	DFW 19:04	19%	7%	0.7%	86%
AA 1047 American Flight history →	LAX 09:06	DFW 14:21	20%	8%	0.9%	65%
F9 2274 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 01:15	DFW 06:32	21%	7%	1.0%	82%
AA 1154 American	LAX 10:39	DFW 15:55	21%	9%	0.9%	no record
AA 2024 American Flight history →	LAX 17:51	DFW 23:07	22%	10%	1.0%	54%
AA 1760 American	LAX 12:01	DFW 17:15	22%	9%	0.9%	no record
AA 1241 American	LAX 16:33	DFW 21:49	23%	11%	0.9%	no record
F9 2564 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 16:17	DFW 21:36	23%	10%	1.0%	72%
AA 9783 American	LAX 12:03	DFW 17:13	23%	10%	0.9%	no record
AA 1657 American Flight history →	LAX 15:05	DFW 20:20	25%	10%	0.9%	57%
AA 500 American	LAX 13:53	DFW 19:07	25%	10%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON