tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 08:47, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Des Moines on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OO 4891 SkyWest LAX 12:48 DSM 18:24 16% 7% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 2 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 16:37 → DSM 17:52DL 2086 9h 52m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → LAX 07:00 → DEN 10:29UA 703 3h 01m Denver DEN 13:30 → DSM 16:11UA 1311 7h 11m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:08 → PHL 08:37AA 2010 2h 02m Philadelphia PHL 10:39 → DSM 12:29AA 5478 · flown by PSA 10h 21m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → LAX 00:02 → MSP 05:34DL 430 3h 26m Minneapolis MSP 09:00 → DSM 10:14DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor 8h 12m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → LAX 10:55 → DEN 14:27UA 2061 3h 13m Denver DEN 17:40 → DSM 20:30UA 549 7h 35m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792 3h 48m Minneapolis MSP 15:40 → DSM 16:54DL 4913 · flown by Endeavor 8h 39m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → LAX 05:10 → ORD 11:27UA 580 1h 42m Chicago ORD 13:09 → DSM 14:40UA 1658 7h 30m 96% 78%
AmericanDetails → LAX 07:12 → CLT 15:05AA 1952 3h 18m Charlotte CLT 18:23 → DSM 19:55AA 3020 10h 43m 97% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON