Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2399 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 2399 LAX 05:30 → DTW 12:56 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 802 LAX 11:50 → DTW 19:14 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2399 Delta Flight history →	LAX 05:30	DTW 12:56	7%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 494 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:45	DTW 17:08	16%	4%	0.5%	91%
DL 708 Delta Flight history →	LAX 15:50	DTW 23:19	16%	5%	0.5%	82%
DL 802 Delta Flight history →	LAX 11:50	DTW 19:14	19%	4%	0.5%	77%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792	1h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 12:55 → DTW 15:39DL 1519	6h 24m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	LAX 09:55 → SLC 12:45DL 1434	1h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:50 → DTW 19:15DL 2244	6h 20m	89%	77%
Delta Details →	LAX 08:21 → PHX 09:56DL 4119 · flown by SkyWest	59m Phoenix	PHX 10:55 → DTW 17:43DL 1070	6h 22m	87%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON