Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1160 at 08:41 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 1160 LAX 08:41 → ELP 11:48 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1893 LAX 12:11 → ELP 15:17 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1160 Southwest	LAX 08:41	ELP 11:48	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
OO 6190 SkyWest	LAX 07:29	ELP 10:41	13%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 6453 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 14:26	ELP 17:35	18%	7%	0.6%	94%worse than usual
WN 1893 Southwest	LAX 12:11	ELP 15:17	22%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON