Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, OO 3278 at 09:13, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


OO 3278 SkyWest	LAX 09:13	EUG 11:37	13%	7%	0.6%	no record
AS 2324 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAX 10:05	EUG 12:18	8%	4%	0.0%	92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Eugene on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LAX 16:52 → SEA 19:29AS 698	3h 20m Seattle	SEA 22:49 → EUG 23:59AS 2047 · flown by Horizon	7h 07m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	LAX 09:55 → SLC 12:45DL 1434	2h 17m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:02 → EUG 16:02DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest	6h 07m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	LAX 07:15 → SEA 10:00DL 2980	1h 30m Seattle	SEA 11:30 → EUG 12:58DL 4149 · flown by SkyWest	5h 43m	93%	79%
United Details →	LAX 07:00 → DEN 10:29UA 703	46m Denver	DEN 11:15 → EUG 12:57UA 318	5h 57m	84%	70%
Alaska Details →	LAX 09:00 → SEA 11:52AS 482	3h 58m Seattle	SEA 15:50 → EUG 17:00AS 2338 · flown by Horizon	8h 00m	100%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LAX 11:23 → PDX 13:44AS 1355	46m Portland	PDX 14:30 → EUG 15:23AS 3042 · flown by SkyWest	4h 00m	67%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON