Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1403 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–38%.

Safest bet that day UA 1403 LAX 06:00 → EWR 14:37 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 1950 LAX 13:49 → EWR 22:04 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1403 United Flight history →	LAX 06:00	EWR 14:37	7%	3%	1.1%	92%
UA 2743 United Flight history →	LAX 07:00	EWR 15:37	9%	4%	0.9%	94%
AS 286 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 07:02	EWR 15:14	14%	7%	1.7%	90%
UA 2096 United Flight history →	LAX 08:20	EWR 16:45	20%	9%	1.0%	83%
UA 1700 United Flight history →	LAX 16:10	EWR 00:44	20%	9%	0.8%	84%
UA 2127 United Flight history →	LAX 10:20	EWR 19:04	32%	14%	0.9%	72%
B6 1874 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 10:55	EWR 19:28	34%	13%	1.2%	67%
UA 1981 United Flight history →	LAX 11:15	EWR 19:30	37%	15%	0.9%	72%
UA 1855 United Flight history →	LAX 13:25	EWR 21:43	38%	15%	0.8%	62%
UA 1950 United Flight history →	LAX 13:49	EWR 22:04	38%	15%	0.8%	61%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAX 00:02 → MSP 05:34DL 430	1h 36m Minneapolis	MSP 07:10 → EWR 10:49DL 2864	7h 47m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	LAX 05:30 → DTW 12:56DL 2399	1h 14m Detroit	DTW 14:10 → EWR 15:54DL 2573	7h 24m	97%	72%
United Details →	LAX 07:00 → DEN 10:29UA 703	1h 08m Denver	DEN 11:37 → EWR 17:31UA 1233	7h 31m	93%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON