tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 5299 at 10:10, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 5299 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 10:10 FAT 11:31 14% 11% 0.6% 89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fresno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906 2h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 10:55 → FAT 11:47DL 3768 · flown by SkyWest 6h 12m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → LAX 09:55 → SLC 12:45DL 1434 2h 58m Salt Lake City SLC 15:43 → FAT 16:32DL 3777 · flown by SkyWest 6h 37m 97% 91%
UnitedDetails → LAX 07:00 → DEN 10:29UA 703 1h 00m Denver DEN 11:29 → FAT 13:14UA 5655 · flown by SkyWest 6h 14m 91% 79%
UnitedDetails → LAX 10:55 → DEN 14:27UA 2061 1h 08m Denver DEN 15:35 → FAT 17:01UA 5978 · flown by SkyWest 6h 06m 89% 76%
AmericanDetails → LAX 06:00 → DFW 11:15AA 2811 1h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:28 → FAT 13:58AA 1329 7h 58m 95% 72%
UnitedDetails → LAX 11:55 → SFO 13:34UA 1245 2h 36m San Francisco SFO 16:10 → FAT 17:28UA 5652 · flown by SkyWest 5h 33m 96% 69%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 07:00 → SEA 09:49AS 748 3h 06m Seattle SEA 12:55 → FAT 15:01AS 383 8h 01m 99% 68%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON