Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 573 at 08:19 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 573 LAX 08:19 → FLL 16:23 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 1700 LAX 10:47 → FLL 18:59 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 573 Delta	LAX 08:19	FLL 16:23	18%	4%	0.5%	no record
B6 1200 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 13:55	FLL 22:20	24%	10%	0.8%	87%worse than usual
B6 1300 JetBlue	LAX 15:32	FLL 23:43	28%	14%	1.5%	no record
B6 1700 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 10:47	FLL 18:59	29%	9%	0.8%	75%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491	1h 23m Houston	IAH 07:35 → FLL 11:22UA 2261	7h 31m	96%	86%
United Details →	LAX 05:45 → IAH 11:12UA 654	59m Houston	IAH 12:11 → FLL 16:01UA 1982	7h 16m	95%	79%
United Details →	LAX 08:10 → IAH 13:40UA 1416	1h 05m Houston	IAH 14:45 → FLL 18:25UA 1424	7h 15m	91%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON