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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 3794 at 13:00, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 3794 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 13:00 GEG 15:35 12% 5% 0.5% 94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Spokane on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906 3h 00m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → GEG 12:12DL 1452 6h 37m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → LAX 09:55 → SLC 12:45DL 1434 2h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 15:25 → GEG 16:08DL 1503 6h 13m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → LAX 12:09 → SEA 14:55DL 1045 3h 04m Seattle SEA 17:59 → GEG 19:15DL 3832 · flown by SkyWest 7h 06m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:41 → SLC 14:30DL 1194 3h 02m Salt Lake City SLC 17:32 → GEG 18:21DL 1219 6h 40m 99% 82%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 07:00 → PDX 09:21AS 668 1h 09m Portland PDX 10:30 → GEG 11:45AS 250 4h 45m 93% 81%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 09:00 → SEA 11:52AS 482 2h 30m Seattle SEA 14:22 → GEG 15:25AS 2074 · flown by Horizon 6h 25m 94% 76%
UnitedDetails → LAX 07:00 → DEN 10:29UA 703 46m Denver DEN 11:15 → GEG 12:37UA 295 5h 37m 84% 73%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 16:52 → SEA 19:29AS 698 2h 01m Seattle SEA 21:30 → GEG 22:36AS 2071 · flown by Horizon 5h 44m 100% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → LAX 10:00 → SEA 12:48AS 798 47m Seattle SEA 13:35 → GEG 14:38AS 2349 · flown by Horizon 4h 38m 50% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON