Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AS 801 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–39%.

Safest bet that day AS 801 LAX 07:00 → HNL 09:54 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AS 803 LAX 10:05 → HNL 12:58 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 801 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 07:00	HNL 09:54	20%	5%	1.6%	83%
DL 480 Delta Flight history →	LAX 08:30	HNL 11:18	22%	4%	0.9%	84%
DL 465 Delta Flight history →	LAX 13:55	HNL 16:43	23%	9%	0.7%	76%
AA 297 American Flight history →	LAX 17:24	HNL 20:25	24%	10%	0.8%	74%
AA 143 American Flight history →	LAX 14:55	HNL 17:57	24%	11%	0.7%	80%
AA 31 American Flight history →	LAX 09:20	HNL 12:20	25%	6%	0.8%	84%
UA 1224 United Flight history →	LAX 13:16	HNL 16:08	26%	14%	0.7%	84%worse than usual
UA 1158 United Flight history →	LAX 09:05	HNL 11:53	30%	9%	0.8%	89%worse than usual
AS 825 Alaska	LAX 08:22	HNL 11:07	31%	6%	1.6%	no record
AS 803 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 10:05	HNL 12:58	39%	10%	0.9%	54%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	LAX 07:19 → LIH 10:22AS 963	1h 36m Lihue	LIH 11:58 → HNL 12:37AS 1064	8h 18m	98%	55%
Alaska Details →	LAX 08:41 → KOA 11:25AS 560	55m Kailua/Kona	KOA 12:20 → HNL 13:18AS 1077	7h 37m	86%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON