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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 12–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1506 LAX 16:41 → IAD 00:53 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1164 LAX 13:33 → IAD 21:49 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 1506 United LAX 16:41 IAD 00:53 12% 5% 0.6% no record
UA 2268 United Flight history → LAX 08:15 IAD 16:26 13% 4% 0.6% 84%
UA 2667 United Flight history → LAX 10:39 IAD 18:48 14% 4% 0.6% 90%
UA 1164 United Flight history → LAX 13:33 IAD 21:49 15% 6% 0.6% 94%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
UnitedDetails → LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491 1h 08m Houston IAH 07:20 → IAD 11:28UA 1549 7h 37m 93% 86%
UnitedDetails → LAX 08:47 → DEN 12:13UA 1912 1h 40m Denver DEN 13:53 → IAD 19:22UA 347 7h 35m 94% 80%
UnitedDetails → LAX 05:10 → ORD 11:27UA 580 1h 28m Chicago ORD 12:55 → IAD 15:53UA 1128 7h 43m 96% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON