Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 654 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–16%.

Safest bet that day UA 654 LAX 05:45 → IAH 11:12 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 1143 LAX 09:40 → IAH 15:04 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 654 United Flight history →	LAX 05:45	IAH 11:12	5%	2%	0.7%	96%
UA 491 United Flight history →	LAX 00:51	IAH 06:12	9%	3%	0.7%	92%
UA 1416 United Flight history →	LAX 08:10	IAH 13:40	11%	4%	0.7%	91%
F9 1756 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 06:11	IAH 11:42	11%	6%	1.0%	70%
UA 277 United Flight history →	LAX 10:10	IAH 15:40	13%	5%	0.7%	88%
UA 2377 United Flight history →	LAX 15:20	IAH 20:49	14%	6%	0.7%	87%
OO 4998 SkyWest	LAX 14:16	IAH 19:40	14%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 1477 United	LAX 12:00	IAH 17:38	15%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 1084 United	LAX 13:01	IAH 18:24	15%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 2765 United	LAX 15:20	IAH 20:43	15%	6%	0.7%	no record
DL 1143 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:40	IAH 15:04	16%	5%	0.6%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON