Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 25 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 979 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 979 LAX 07:00 → JFK 15:39 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 958 LAX 10:08 → JFK 18:18 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 979 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:00	JFK 15:39	8%	4%	0.8%	90%
B6 124 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 06:00	JFK 14:30	8%	3%	1.2%	93%
AA 118 American Flight history →	LAX 06:00	JFK 14:37	8%	3%	1.0%	85%
AA 2 American Flight history →	LAX 07:00	JFK 15:39	10%	4%	1.0%	86%
B6 524 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 07:27	JFK 16:00	12%	6%	1.1%	80%
DL 938 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:43	JFK 15:52	14%	4%	0.8%	79%
DL 915 Delta Flight history →	LAX 00:14	JFK 08:20	15%	4%	0.9%	86%
B6 924 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 15:20	JFK 23:57	17%	8%	1.2%	81%
AA 28 American Flight history →	LAX 15:15	JFK 23:54	17%	8%	1.0%	79%
AA 307 American Flight history →	LAX 08:30	JFK 17:09	17%	7%	1.0%	76%
B6 224 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 12:35	JFK 21:09	17%	10%	1.1%	82%
B6 624 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 14:30	JFK 23:10	18%	9%	1.2%	71%
DL 991 Delta Flight history →	LAX 15:30	JFK 23:41	18%	7%	0.8%	78%
DL 939 Delta Flight history →	LAX 13:15	JFK 21:53	18%	8%	0.8%	73%
AA 32 American Flight history →	LAX 11:05	JFK 19:46	18%	10%	1.0%	74%
DL 934 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:06	JFK 17:20	18%	6%	0.8%	89%
AA 4 American Flight history →	LAX 13:00	JFK 21:34	19%	10%	1.0%	76%
B6 324 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 11:35	JFK 20:11	19%	10%	1.2%	77%
DL 972 Delta Flight history →	LAX 11:15	JFK 20:02	19%	8%	0.8%	67%
B6 424 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 09:49	JFK 18:25	19%	9%	1.2%	80%
B6 1224 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 00:00	JFK 08:23	20%	6%	1.3%	68%
AA 238 American Flight history →	LAX 10:11	JFK 18:52	22%	10%	1.0%	71%
AA 274 American Flight history →	LAX 11:55	JFK 20:36	22%	10%	1.0%	60%
DL 951 Delta Flight history →	LAX 13:17	JFK 21:27	22%	9%	0.8%	74%
DL 958 Delta Flight history →	LAX 10:08	JFK 18:18	24%	7%	0.8%	83%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAX 00:02 → MSP 05:34DL 430	1h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 06:55 → JFK 10:39DL 2969	7h 37m	96%	91%
Delta Details →	LAX 13:10 → SLC 16:03DL 1647	1h 07m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:10 → JFK 23:47DL 697	7h 37m	87%	72%
Delta Details →	LAX 09:05 → IND 16:10DL 861	1h 05m Indianapolis	IND 17:15 → JFK 19:39DL 4984 · flown by Endeavor	7h 34m	86%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON