Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2373 at 09:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 2373 LAX 09:00 → KOA 11:42 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 59 LAX 13:30 → KOA 16:10 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2373 United Flight history →	LAX 09:00	KOA 11:42	8%	5%	0.5%	91%
AS 560 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 08:41	KOA 11:25	11%	4%	0.9%	80%
DL 311 Delta Flight history →	LAX 16:44	KOA 19:17	15%	5%	0.5%	82%
AA 59 American Flight history →	LAX 13:30	KOA 16:10	25%	8%	0.6%	78%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	LAX 08:30 → OGG 11:11AS 933	1h 49m Kahului	OGG 13:00 → KOA 13:36AS 1030	8h 06m	97%	72%
Alaska Details →	LAX 07:00 → HNL 09:54AS 801	1h 13m Honolulu	HNL 11:07 → KOA 12:05AS 1088	8h 05m	87%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON