Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2483 at 05:46 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 2483 LAX 05:46 → LAS 07:00 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2368 LAX 16:31 → LAS 17:44 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2483 Southwest	LAX 05:46	LAS 07:00	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2061 Southwest	LAX 07:26	LAS 08:47	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 2253 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:15	LAS 08:27	11%	4%	0.6%	95%
WN 2493 Southwest	LAX 08:46	LAS 10:06	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 1006 United Flight history →	LAX 08:20	LAS 09:42	12%	5%	0.6%	91%
AA 6425 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 08:10	LAS 09:33	13%	7%	0.9%	97%worse than usual
UA 2741 United Flight history →	LAX 13:12	LAS 14:34	20%	10%	0.8%	83%
AA 2785 American Flight history →	LAX 17:52	LAS 19:25	22%	13%	0.7%	72%
WN 1660 Southwest	LAX 11:16	LAS 12:36	23%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 2403 United	LAX 13:51	LAS 15:09	24%	11%	0.8%	no record
OO 6511 SkyWest	LAX 15:50	LAS 17:06	24%	11%	0.9%	no record
OO 718 SkyWest	LAX 16:43	LAS 17:59	24%	10%	0.8%	no record
F9 3292 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 12:07	LAS 13:29	24%	10%	1.1%	80%
DL 2120 Delta Flight history →	LAX 15:32	LAS 16:41	25%	9%	0.6%	69%
WN 1222 Southwest	LAX 15:11	LAS 16:31	26%	10%	0.7%	no record
F9 1184 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 14:41	LAS 16:04	26%	13%	1.3%	78%
DL 1696 Delta Flight history →	LAX 11:00	LAS 12:12	27%	6%	0.6%	77%
AA 2529 American Flight history →	LAX 12:07	LAS 13:32	29%	11%	0.9%	57%
WN 2368 Southwest	LAX 16:31	LAS 17:44	32%	11%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON