tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:02, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 00:02 → MSP 05:34DL 430 1h 31m Minneapolis MSP 07:05 → LGA 10:44DL 2719 7h 42m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491 1h 46m Houston IAH 07:58 → LGA 12:48UA 1143 8h 57m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:03 → DFW 05:21AA 2490 2h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:40 → LGA 12:13AA 1609 9h 10m 100% 80%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:31 → DFW 05:46AA 971 2h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:25 → LGA 13:00AA 1056 9h 29m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792 1h 08m Minneapolis MSP 13:00 → LGA 16:49DL 2756 7h 34m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → LAX 09:50 → ATL 17:13DL 327 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 20:00 → LGA 22:27DL 490 9h 37m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → LAX 10:45 → ORD 17:04UA 2113 3h 08m Chicago ORD 20:12 → LGA 23:34UA 2827 9h 49m 98% 75%
UnitedDetails → LAX 10:55 → DEN 14:27UA 2061 3h 08m Denver DEN 17:35 → LGA 23:30UA 2033 9h 35m 99% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → LAX 09:50 → ATL 17:13DL 327 47m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → LGA 20:27DL 434 7h 37m 62% 45%
UnitedDetails → LAX 10:45 → ORD 17:04UA 2113 56m Chicago ORD 18:00 → LGA 21:15UA 2458 7h 30m 71% 39%
UnitedDetails → LAX 07:00 → ORD 13:14UA 1941 46m Chicago ORD 14:00 → LGA 17:22UA 1821 7h 22m 62% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON