Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:02, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Memphis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 2 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAX 00:02 → MSP 05:34DL 430	3h 36m Minneapolis	MSP 09:10 → MEM 11:28DL 3989 · flown by SkyWest	9h 26m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792	3h 53m Minneapolis	MSP 15:45 → MEM 17:52DL 4063 · flown by SkyWest	9h 37m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 16:41 → MEM 17:07DL 1681	9h 07m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	LAX 07:15 → SLC 10:10DL 1318	3h 30m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:40 → MEM 17:40DL 2515	8h 25m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	LAX 09:45 → DTW 17:08DL 494	2h 57m Detroit	DTW 20:05 → MEM 21:01DL 1230	9h 16m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	LAX 09:50 → ATL 17:13DL 327	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 20:11 → MEM 20:34DL 3020	8h 44m	98%	84%
American Details →	LAX 06:00 → DFW 11:15AA 2811	1h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:53 → MEM 14:35AA 3888 · flown by Envoy	6h 35m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	LAX 07:00 → ATL 14:35DL 515	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 17:53 → MEM 18:16DL 2939	9h 16m	99%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	LAX 11:50 → DTW 19:14DL 802	51m Detroit	DTW 20:05 → MEM 21:01DL 1230	7h 11m	73%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON