Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, OO 3449 at 11:42, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


OO 3449 SkyWest	LAX 11:42	MFR 13:51	13%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 2328 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAX 13:15	MFR 15:14	6%	2%	0.0%	94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Medford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906	2h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → MFR 11:40DL 3806 · flown by SkyWest	6h 05m	99%	93%
Alaska Details →	LAX 16:52 → SEA 19:29AS 698	3h 11m Seattle	SEA 22:40 → MFR 00:04 +1AS 2461 · flown by Horizon	7h 12m	100%	84%
Alaska Details →	LAX 12:47 → SEA 15:33AS 1305	2h 14m Seattle	SEA 17:47 → MFR 19:13AS 2037 · flown by Horizon	6h 26m	96%	81%
Alaska Details →	LAX 11:23 → PDX 13:44AS 1355	1h 08m Portland	PDX 14:52 → MFR 15:54AS 2125 · flown by Horizon	4h 31m	89%	75%
Delta Details →	LAX 07:15 → SEA 10:00DL 2980	1h 15m Seattle	SEA 11:15 → MFR 12:56DL 3779 · flown by SkyWest	5h 41m	91%	74%
Alaska Details →	LAX 14:27 → PDX 16:47AS 1315	58m Portland	PDX 17:45 → MFR 18:48AS 2163 · flown by Horizon	4h 21m	84%	71%
United Details →	LAX 07:00 → DEN 10:29UA 703	51m Denver	DEN 11:20 → MFR 13:05UA 337	6h 05m	86%	69%
United Details →	LAX 11:55 → SFO 13:34UA 1245	2h 48m San Francisco	SFO 16:22 → MFR 17:51UA 5706 · flown by SkyWest	5h 56m	96%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON