Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 637 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 637 LAX 06:40 → MIA 15:03 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 858 LAX 10:50 → MIA 19:14 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 637 American	LAX 06:40	MIA 15:03	13%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 345 American Flight history →	LAX 08:00	MIA 16:19	17%	6%	0.8%	87%
DL 811 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:40	MIA 18:07	27%	9%	1.0%	77%
AA 467 American	LAX 13:42	MIA 22:00	28%	10%	0.8%	no record
AA 858 American	LAX 10:50	MIA 19:14	31%	9%	0.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491	1h 43m Houston	IAH 07:55 → MIA 11:33UA 2753	7h 42m	99%	83%
American Details →	LAX 00:31 → DFW 05:46AA 971	1h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:10 → MIA 11:11AA 3290	7h 40m	94%	76%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390	1h 15m Atlanta	ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386	7h 55m	96%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON