Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 5613 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 10:28	MRY 11:50	16%	8%	0.7%	93%
UA 637 United	LAX 16:15	MRY 17:38	17%	9%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Monterey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LAX 10:00 → SEA 12:48AS 798	2h 32m Seattle	SEA 15:20 → MRY 17:42AS 2129 · flown by Horizon	7h 42m	97%	83%
United Details →	LAX 11:55 → SFO 13:34UA 1245	3h 45m San Francisco	SFO 17:19 → MRY 18:18UA 5627 · flown by SkyWest	6h 23m	98%	77%
United Details →	LAX 07:00 → DEN 10:29UA 703	46m Denver	DEN 11:15 → MRY 13:10UA 5438 · flown by SkyWest	6h 10m	84%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON