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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:35, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching Missoula on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Missoula on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Missoula is 1 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906 2h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 10:55 → MSO 12:35DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest 6h 00m 99% 93%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 07:00 → PDX 09:21AS 668 1h 34m Portland PDX 10:55 → MSO 13:24AS 2146 · flown by Horizon 5h 24m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792 53m Minneapolis MSP 12:45 → MSO 14:38DL 362 7h 23m 93% 82%
UnitedDetails → LAX 07:00 → DEN 10:29UA 703 59m Denver DEN 11:28 → MSO 13:38UA 2357 5h 38m 90% 78%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 07:00 → SEA 09:49AS 748 2h 56m Seattle SEA 12:45 → MSO 15:07AS 660 7h 07m 99% 74%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 15:49 → SEA 18:31AS 585 1h 59m Seattle SEA 20:30 → MSO 22:55AS 2154 · flown by Horizon 6h 06m 96% 73%
UnitedDetails → LAX 07:30 → SFO 09:06UA 1372 3h 09m San Francisco SFO 12:15 → MSO 15:38UA 5422 · flown by SkyWest 7h 08m 99% 63%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 12:47 → SEA 15:33AS 1305 1h 21m Seattle SEA 16:54 → MSO 19:19AS 2123 · flown by Horizon 5h 32m 84% 59%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → LAX 09:00 → SEA 11:52AS 482 53m Seattle SEA 12:45 → MSO 15:07AS 660 5h 07m 57% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON