Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 792 LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 914 LAX 12:35 → MSP 18:11 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 792 Delta Flight history →	LAX 06:15	MSP 11:52	5%	2%	0.5%	94%
DL 430 Delta Flight history →	LAX 00:02	MSP 05:34	8%	2%	0.5%	89%
DL 799 Delta Flight history →	LAX 08:05	MSP 13:42	10%	3%	0.5%	90%
DL 413 Delta Flight history →	LAX 11:15	MSP 16:50	12%	3%	0.5%	88%
DL 2198 Delta Flight history →	LAX 15:22	MSP 20:59	13%	5%	0.5%	86%
DL 914 Delta Flight history →	LAX 12:35	MSP 18:11	13%	4%	0.5%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON