Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 17–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 417 LAX 09:26 → OGG 12:11 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AS 933 LAX 08:30 → OGG 11:11 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 417 United Flight history →	LAX 09:26	OGG 12:11	17%	5%	0.6%	93%
AA 271 American Flight history →	LAX 09:04	OGG 11:44	18%	5%	0.6%	83%
DL 425 Delta Flight history →	LAX 08:30	OGG 11:07	19%	4%	0.6%	86%
AS 933 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 08:30	OGG 11:11	23%	3%	0.8%	73%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	LAX 08:41 → KOA 11:25AS 560	1h 26m Kailua/Kona	KOA 12:51 → OGG 13:28AS 1149	7h 47m	97%	62%
Alaska Details →	LAX 07:00 → HNL 09:54AS 801	1h 05m Honolulu	HNL 10:59 → OGG 11:41AS 1076	7h 41m	85%	53%
Alaska Details →	LAX 10:05 → HNL 12:58AS 803	1h 37m Honolulu	HNL 14:35 → OGG 15:25AS 1136	8h 20m	86%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON