tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 6385 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 17:12 OKC 22:21 12% 7% 0.6% 92%
AA 6378 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 08:05 OKC 13:12 16% 6% 0.6% 97%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oklahoma City is 2 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:03 → DFW 05:21AA 2490 2h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:30 → OKC 08:50AA 4946 · flown by SkyWest 6h 47m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → LAX 08:10 → IAH 13:40UA 1416 2h 55m Houston IAH 16:35 → OKC 18:15UA 6334 · flown by Mesa 8h 05m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491 1h 13m Houston IAH 07:25 → OKC 08:57UA 6178 · flown by Mesa 6h 06m 95% 85%
UnitedDetails → LAX 05:45 → IAH 11:12UA 654 3h 23m Houston IAH 14:35 → OKC 16:15UA 6189 · flown by Mesa 8h 30m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:31 → DFW 05:46AA 971 3h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:25 → OKC 10:43AA 1902 8h 12m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → LAX 08:05 → ATL 15:41DL 782 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 19:05 → OKC 20:15DL 2784 10h 10m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390 1h 40m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → OKC 16:22DL 2862 8h 22m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → LAX 07:00 → DEN 10:29UA 703 2h 55m Denver DEN 13:24 → OKC 16:13UA 1656 7h 13m 99% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON