Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 6506 at 08:57, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 6506 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 08:57	OMA 14:22	12%	5%	0.5%	91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Omaha is 2 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAX 07:15 → SLC 10:10DL 1318	3h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:30 → OMA 16:51DL 3896 · flown by SkyWest	7h 36m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	LAX 00:02 → MSP 05:34DL 430	3h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 08:50 → OMA 10:12DL 3831 · flown by SkyWest	8h 10m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906	1h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:35 → OMA 12:56DL 4114 · flown by SkyWest	5h 21m	96%	91%
American Details →	LAX 00:03 → DFW 05:21AA 2490	1h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:15 → OMA 09:17AA 2135	7h 14m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	LAX 05:30 → DTW 12:56DL 2399	3h 04m Detroit	DTW 16:00 → OMA 17:10DL 3889 · flown by SkyWest	9h 40m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	LAX 09:45 → DTW 17:08DL 494	2h 37m Detroit	DTW 19:45 → OMA 20:53DL 3715 · flown by SkyWest	9h 08m	98%	86%
United Details →	LAX 07:00 → DEN 10:29UA 703	3h 21m Denver	DEN 13:50 → OMA 16:24UA 2327	7h 24m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → OMA 17:48DL 2364	9h 48m	99%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON