Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 580 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–17%.

Safest bet that day UA 580 LAX 05:10 → ORD 11:27 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest AA 3192 LAX 13:31 → ORD 20:05 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 580 United Flight history →	LAX 05:10	ORD 11:27	6%	2%	0.7%	98%
AA 383 American Flight history →	LAX 06:05	ORD 12:32	7%	4%	1.2%	91%
UA 1941 United Flight history →	LAX 07:00	ORD 13:14	11%	4%	0.7%	91%
AA 1598 American Flight history →	LAX 08:00	ORD 14:27	14%	6%	1.0%	90%
DL 967 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:40	ORD 13:46	15%	5%	0.5%	85%
UA 1946 United Flight history →	LAX 08:15	ORD 14:35	15%	5%	0.7%	85%
DL 1634 Delta Flight history →	LAX 17:15	ORD 23:18	16%	7%	0.4%	67%
AA 1998 American Flight history →	LAX 17:07	ORD 23:25	17%	9%	0.8%	42%
UA 2780 United	LAX 16:51	ORD 23:05	17%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 2998 American Flight history →	LAX 09:30	ORD 15:48	19%	8%	1.0%	71%
UA 2794 United Flight history →	LAX 15:20	ORD 21:43	20%	7%	0.6%	91%worse than usual
UA 2113 United Flight history →	LAX 10:45	ORD 17:04	22%	8%	0.6%	78%
AA 2891 American Flight history →	LAX 11:35	ORD 17:59	23%	11%	1.0%	74%
UA 2487 United Flight history →	LAX 14:26	ORD 20:40	24%	8%	0.6%	69%
DL 2368 Delta Flight history →	LAX 11:24	ORD 17:35	24%	8%	0.5%	66%
AA 3075 American	LAX 10:20	ORD 16:44	24%	9%	1.0%	no record
UA 457 United Flight history →	LAX 12:50	ORD 19:05	26%	8%	0.6%	69%
AA 3192 American	LAX 13:31	ORD 20:05	28%	10%	0.9%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAX 07:00 → DEN 10:29UA 703	46m Denver	DEN 11:15 → ORD 14:55UA 2865	5h 55m	84%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON