Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 9–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 668 LAX 07:00 → PDX 09:21 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest DL 2459 LAX 17:01 → PDX 19:17 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 668 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 07:00	PDX 09:21	9%	3%	0.7%	95%
DL 2975 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:05	PDX 09:23	9%	3%	0.5%	89%
AS 1315 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 14:27	PDX 16:47	14%	4%	0.7%	92%
AS 1356 Alaska	LAX 08:26	PDX 10:52	14%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 2766 Delta Flight history →	LAX 10:00	PDX 12:20	15%	4%	0.5%	89%
DL 2551 Delta Flight history →	LAX 14:19	PDX 16:34	16%	5%	0.5%	86%
AS 1355 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 11:23	PDX 13:44	16%	4%	0.7%	84%
F9 4499 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 09:15	PDX 11:35	17%	5%	1.1%	95%worse than usual
DL 2459 Delta Flight history →	LAX 17:01	PDX 19:17	17%	5%	0.6%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON