Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1451 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 1451 LAX 06:05 → PHL 14:21 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 738 LAX 10:11 → PHL 19:00 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1451 American Flight history →	LAX 06:05	PHL 14:21	8%	3%	0.8%	87%
AA 2222 American	LAX 07:02	PHL 15:52	12%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 2010 American Flight history →	LAX 00:08	PHL 08:28	13%	4%	1.1%	72%
AA 1528 American Flight history →	LAX 08:05	PHL 16:28	18%	5%	0.7%	88%
AA 2148 American	LAX 12:16	PHL 21:05	20%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 513 American Flight history →	LAX 15:20	PHL 23:39	21%	8%	0.8%	67%
AA 738 American Flight history →	LAX 10:11	PHL 19:00	24%	8%	0.7%	72%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAX 00:02 → MSP 05:34DL 430	1h 36m Minneapolis	MSP 07:10 → PHL 10:44DL 2688	7h 42m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	LAX 07:15 → SLC 10:10DL 1318	1h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:20 → PHL 17:39DL 2022	7h 24m	95%	84%
United Details →	LAX 08:47 → DEN 12:13UA 1912	1h 36m Denver	DEN 13:49 → PHL 19:32UA 2787	7h 45m	94%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON