Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3591 at 05:31 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 3591 LAX 05:31 → PHX 07:02 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2032 LAX 16:39 → PHX 18:10 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3591 Southwest	LAX 05:31	PHX 07:02	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 2712 American	LAX 06:40	PHX 08:21	7%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 8948 Delta	LAX 02:22	PHX 03:46	9%	4%	0.5%	no record
DL 3894 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 13:46	PHX 15:21	11%	7%	0.6%	88%
DL 4077 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 17:41	PHX 19:14	11%	6%	0.6%	88%
WN 3385 Southwest	LAX 08:11	PHX 09:42	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 5662 SkyWest	LAX 16:18	PHX 17:55	12%	6%	0.6%	no record
OO 5425 SkyWest	LAX 13:21	PHX 14:58	12%	7%	0.6%	no record
DL 4119 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 08:21	PHX 09:56	13%	6%	0.6%	85%
DL 3951 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 10:01	PHX 11:34	13%	7%	0.6%	86%
OO 5419 SkyWest	LAX 08:10	PHX 09:47	14%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 2388 American	LAX 09:51	PHX 11:29	16%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 1749 Southwest	LAX 10:16	PHX 11:48	19%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 2628 Southwest	LAX 14:21	PHX 15:53	24%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 1994 American Flight history →	LAX 13:10	PHX 14:40	26%	10%	0.6%	65%
AA 2032 American Flight history →	LAX 16:39	PHX 18:10	29%	12%	0.6%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON